Wednesday, 18 April 2007

On a roll...

The population of Wellington is rather small in comparison to KL. I maybe wrong but I think it is in the region of about 300,000 or so. And due to its size, the likelihood or probability of being able to win anything from a contest or a draw is also relatively high. If there was one prize to be won in KL, the chances of getting that one prize would be one in 4 million and in Wellington it would be one in 300,000, assuming of course every resident participates.

A few weeks ago, there were tickets being given away by a local radio station (The Breeze) for the movie "Mr Bean's Holiday". Each winner was to get 2 free tickets to the movie. Vera called one morning when they said "Be the 5th caller...." What do you know? She was the 5th caller and won 2 free tickets. Having just 2 tickets, when there are 4 of us would mean someone needs to baby sit the kids, so we tried calling for another chance on another day. Bingo! We got another 2 tickets.

After the first win, I went over to their offices in the city to pick up the tickets. Had no problems picking it up on behalf of Vera. No identification was asked – just mentioned her name and got the tickets. Then a few days later when we got the second 2 tickets, I had to go to their offices again to pick up the tickets. This time the receptionist asked me "Didn't I see you earlier this week for tickets?" I said "Yes, but this is for someone else" to which she replied "At the rate you are doing favours, you better get yourself invited as well".

Last week, there were tickets to be given away for the "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle" movie. Kids were asked to call and talk about their strangest pets for a chance to win a family pass of 4. Anil called up this time and talked about his pet "fly" called William, which mysteriously fled from captivity moments after he won the tickets.

And just this morning, yet again another chance for a free family pass to "The Robinsons" was announced over the radio. This time, Anil and Ashwini called but only one won. Anil managed to get through and got himself a family pass for 4. As it coincides with Ashwini's 6th birthday, it will be her treat courtesy of The Breeze!

After this, we need to keep a low profile or might be banned from getting free tickets to the movies.

I was thinking...since the population of New Zealand at 4 million is only slightly smaller than the population of KL, I might try my hand at Lotto. Mathematically the chances of winning Lotto in New Zealand is surprisingly higher.

I read somewhere that the adult population in New Zealand is approximately 60% of the total, which is about 2.4 million people. I am assuming that of that, only 60% will play Lotto, which brings the number to 1.44 million. If 20% of that were out of town, out of the country or are in a hospital somewhere and could not buy a ticket, that brought the number down to 1.15 million. If half of that bought more than one ticket to increase their chances, that would make the total number of tickets competing for the $2 million, to be 1.73 million. So, mathematically, the chances of raking in the $2 million is one in 1.73 million.

Ok, I can start building my castle in the air. The foundation can come later.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

dude, could not help but "audit" your assupmtions. Your assumoption of a punter buying to combinations is way low. On average I would say it is much higher hence your chances of winning are going to be a lot less. But if I am wrong and you do win - don't forget your friends :)

Anonymous said...

should spell check in future - just realised I made a whole bunch of "typos".

nooryahaya said...

hey, you are right about Kiwi's superannuation investment is in Lotto. every week they invest in it, and creating some millionaire among them.
but then its no difference than Malaysians and their sports toto.

Anonymous said...

I remember those days while I was a student, our try at luck was the scratch and win cards! And every now and again, a visit to Sky Casino... oh those good old days. Makes me want to do a visit now.

fulltime mom

Bob Goh said...

Good analysis. I shall try my luck more offen in Lotto.

The Kings said...

LOL Shagen...

i started playing Sports Toto in 1999 but never won, not even the consolation! Surprisingly, I won the 2nd prize, worth RM1,000 last month.... u better try harder in order to lay the foundation of your castle Shagen.. G'luck!

http://www.faiyun.com/coki